According to App Annie’s Rank History, Fitbit’s app download rank on the App Store was Number 1 on Christmas day, and Number 2 on December 26. This compares to a ranking of 41, 65, and 112 on December 23, December 21, and December 15, respectively. On Google Play, the Fitbit app has climbed from Number 99 on December 22 to Number 7 on December 26.
Collectively, this data is a great indication that Fitbit won the holidays, given that no other mobile app produced an equal climb up the charts. Furthermore, Fitbit’s climb is very reminiscent of 2015 when its app did the same exact thing, climbed to Number 1 the day after Christmas.
What it means for FIT stock
Over the last two weeks BNL Finance has taken a bullish stance on FIT stock, after previously being bearish. We think IDC’s poor wearables data from Q3 is actually a positive for Fitbit. The data shows just how much power Fitbit has over this space. We also expect FIT to flex its muscles in early 2017 with a new smart watch that will put on full display its leadership position.
That said, despite our FIT stock optimism for 2017, I never would have guessed that Fitbit could accomplish this feat with dated products. Keep in mind, its best-selling Blaze smartwatch was launched back in Q1.
The fact that Fitbit did so well further illustrates its control over wearables, and more importantly, its bad news for a seemingly superior Apple Watch.
What this means is that Fitbit will likely issue strong guidance headed into the first quarter, and will likely beat low fourth quarter expectations when it reports earnings. Finally, it confirms and increases our conviction that FIT will be acquired next year, by Apple.